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CO2 Absorption in the Atmosphere

Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:26 AM EDT
science, climate-change, global-warming, co2, anthropogenic-global-warming
By space guy

Live Poll

Has this article helped you to understand CO2 better?

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  • 12160
    Yes, it has
    71%
  • 12161
    No, I am even more confused
    6%
  • 12162
    No, humans cause global warming
    24%

VoteTotal Votes: 17

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Today there is a lot of discussion about the role of CO2 in contributing to Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). However, the question is, what is the foundational physics for this contention? Most of the sites and papers that discuss this question harken back to Svante Arrhenius and a paper that he wrote in 1900 regarding CO2 buildup due to the burning of fossil fuels. However, Arrhenius knew very little about the actual mechanism of how CO2 operates in absorbing radiation. This is because quantum mechanics had not been invented yet.

Over the years there has been much discussion about absorption of infrared radiation and there are much better expositions about it than mine such as this link.

However, what needs to be understood is that on realclimate and other sites it is said that CO2 is not at extinction, that is CO2 has not absorbed all of the energy from the sun and from the heat radiated from the Earth at the wavelengths that CO2 typically absorbs. This argument is linked here.

Here is the relevant excerpt from the realclimate website:

In any event, modern measurements show that there is not nearly enough CO2 in the atmosphere to block most of the infrared radiation in the bands of the spectrum where the gas absorbs. That's even the case for water vapor in places where the air is very dry. (When night falls in a desert, the temperature can quickly drop from warm to freezing. Radiation from the surface escapes directly into space unless there are clouds to block it.)

This is manifestly incorrect. In the picture that accompanies this article is a set of measurements taken in the late 1940's by both Russian and American scientists studying the upper atmosphere (to figure out how to build heat seeking missiles) that shows the amout of absorption of CO2, H20, N2O, CH4, and other molecules from the ultraviolet band on the left to the mid infrared on the right.

The top part of the chart shows the relative contribution in terms of temperature of the sun (left most hump), and the heat of the earth (right most hump). Even though both are shown as the same height, the sun is at a temperature far higher than the earth and its blackbody curve (the hump) is shown on the left side because it is at far higher energies than the infrared heat radiated from the Earth's surface.

The middle graph shows the absorption percentage at ground level with zero being none and 100% being all radiation absorbed. As can be clearly seen, both water vapor and CO2 are 100% absorbed. If you look toward the left side you will see several absorption features of water that are in energy bands of much higher energy value than the infrared absorption of CO2. CO2 has no absorption features in the visible light energy bands, which are orders of magnitude more energetic than infrared.

Now the lower graph shows the absorption of energy by water vapor and CO2 and Ozone at 11 kilometers, or 6.6 miles or 35,000 feet, which is about as high as 1940's era aircraft could reach. If you look closely the primary CO2 absorption feature at 15 microns (toward the right of the graph) is almost fully absorbed. Ozone at ~10 microns is about 60% absorbed. Now as realclimate accurately states, water vapor is not fully at extinction (absorbed) at that altitude. This means nothing as it is at the ground where all of the temperature rise is!. Now what is important to note is that CO2 is fully absorbed at ~15 microns and about 30% absorbed at the next major line at about ~4.7 microns.

What does this mean to climate science? The graph shown here was taken in the 1940's, well before the growth in CO2 as recorded at Mauna Loa and the subject of so much discussion over climate change. If CO2 at ground level was fully absorbed, then it does not matter how much more (up to a point of several percent of the total atmosphere which nobody claims) CO2 is injected into the atmosphere, there will be no further heating. Also, even at high altitudes, CO2 at ~15 microns is almost completely absorbed.

Now a technical person who is well versed in spectroscopy will say that the graphs are not representative as they do not show the narrowband features and they would be right. However, there is high resolution data available as well that shows the same thing that will be the subject of a follow on article.

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  • Public Discussion (91)
Tom Bombadil

Space Guy,

Thanks so much for writing an informative and objective article. This should facilitate some very interesting discussion - hopefully one that is far away from the all-too-typical hysteria that sometimes clouds our discussions on the subject of climate change.

  • 6 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 3:23 AM EDT
Dr Danny

Excellent article Space Guy, the detail and clarity was superb and it certainly enhanced my understanding of the processes involved. All too often we're told CO2 is a greenhouse gas and contributes to warming but we're never told how it works. This takes the argument beyond that level and questions the very basis of the anthropogenic greenhouse system. As you've said, if the energies are fully absorbed already, pumping more of the absorber in to the air won't absorb anymore. Climatologists definitely have some explaining to do, well done for opening up the argument.

  • 7 votes
Reply#2 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 3:51 AM EDT
epiphany sorbet

Those with the knowledge must keep on asking questions. Thanks for the article, S G.

  • 7 votes
Reply#3 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:21 AM EDT
Deep_Thought

Looks like some people need a lesson in physics...

CO2 does absorb radiation, however, this causes the molecules to vibrate and re-emit the radiation. This process is known as the 'absorption-emission-absorption cycle'.

Here is a link that will explain the process (its under the section titled 'Greenhouse Gases' about 3/4 way down the page, it also has a nice graphic of the process):

The Greenhouse Effect
http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_3_1.htm

  • 4 votes
Reply#4 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:40 PM EDT
space guy

Yep

I know about that. It makes no difference. There is no such thing as more than 100% of the energy in a certain waveband. When that energy is absorbed it can do two things.

1. Transfer that energy to another molecule through collisons, which increase the energy of the other molecule (which there is a 99.7% chance will be a molecule other than CO2).

or

2. Re-emit the radiation at the same wavelength.

This actually weakens your argument in that there is at least some small fraction of this energy that will be emitted to space. That is why in my spacecraft design business there is an instrument called a horizon sensor that can detect the emission band of CO2 in the upper atmosphere and uses that as a reference to the horizon for attitude control.

Good try though.

  • 5 votes
#4.1 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:51 PM EDT
Deep_Thought

You obviously cannot grasp how an absorption-emission-absorption cycle would lead to build up as new photons entered the atmosphere, creating a blanket like effect.

That is why in my spacecraft design business there is

What's the name of this business?

Please tell me you have nothing to do with the math side of things...

  • 3 votes
#4.2 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:58 PM EDT
space guy

Oh I understand it all right. Thanks for veering off into ad hominum attack, just proves the point of the article.

  • 7 votes
#4.3 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:03 PM EDT
Deep_Thought

Well, if you understood that the absorption-emission-absorption cycle would lead to a blanket-like effect as new photons entered the atmosphere, resulting in increased kinetic energy, why did you say this:

I know about that. It makes no difference.

Obviously, you didn't.

  • 5 votes
#4.4 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:15 PM EDT
space guy

CO2 does absorb radiation, however, this causes the molecules to vibrate and re-emit the radiation. This process is known as the 'absorption-emission-absorption cycle'.

Do you actually understand what you wrote here? I mean this seriously and not in a derogatory manner.

My response was correct in every physical sense of the term.

CO2 does absorb radiation at very specific wavelengths and no others. This is fundamental to understanding the entire process. Those wavelengths are shown (in broad terms), in the graph. When a CO2 molecule absorbs radiation at those wavelengths there are only two possible outcomes.

1. Transfer of that energy to another molecule (99.62% probability based on the composition of the atmosphere, not including water vapor). That transfer of energy is called heat. That is what causes temperature rise.

2. Re-emit that radiation at exactly the same wavelength and energy that it absorbed. This governed by quantum mechanical relationships of energy and quantas of radiation.

The CO2 molecule does not magically gain energy in any form, it is a zero sum game. Even when CO2 is struck by other molecules it does not transfer that energy into an emission as the energy of the collision is at the wrong wavelength. It can only result in an increase in kinetic energy (heat or velocity of the entire molecule relative to those it collides with).

Do you understand that the atmosphere is 99.9% space? What we perceive as atmospheric pressure is simply the collisons of the molecules of the atmosphere with your body or anything else.

  • 5 votes
#4.5 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:43 PM EDT
Deep_Thought

You are missing the point:

The CO2 molecule does not magically gain energy in any form, it is a zero sum game

I'll keep this simple for you...

Through the absorption-emission-absorption cycle a higher percentage of photons are kept within the atmosphere. So, not only do we have the photons that occupy free space, but we also have the re-emission of photons. As CO2 levels increase, we have even more re-emitted photons.

This increases the temperature. As temperature increases, so does the kinetic energy.

Getting this?

  • 5 votes
#4.6 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:55 PM EDT
space guy

What you miss is that if CO2 is already at saturation in terms of absorption, which is what the graph shows, then no matter how much CO2 you add, you are not going to absorb any more than was absorbed in the late 40s and early 50's with the amout of CO2 in the atmosphere today.

This is the whole point of the article. 100% is 100%.

  • 6 votes
#4.7 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:06 PM EDT
Deep_Thought

The graph is wrong. It was based upon a flawed experiment by a lab assistant that has long since been corrected and proper formula extracted. Saturation did not occur, the range used was too short to determine that the transmission relative to a 100C blackbody continued to decay at a slower rate.

You're trying to base an arguement on an a graph from the 1960's. Its 47 years out of date...try keeping up with modern science.

  • 6 votes
#4.8 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:27 PM EDT
space guy

Please provide references for that statement. This graph is from both Russian, UK, and American atmospheric researchers. There were extensive experiments done on this by the USAF when they were designing the first infrared heat seeking missiles.

I have given you the source for both the Russian and British books on the subject. How about you dig them up and then comment.

  • 6 votes
#4.9 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:59 PM EDT
Deep_Thought

Fiding reliable info on this is difficult as it is experimental data used in the construction of missiles.

It has been suggested that the absorption by CO2 is already saturated so that an increase would have no effect. This, however, is not the case.

Carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation in the middle of its 15 mm band to the extent that radiation in the middle of this band cannot escape unimpeded: this absorption is saturated.

This, however, is not the case for the band's wings. It is because of these effects of partial saturation that the radiative forcing is not proportional to the increase in the carbon dioxide concentration but shows a logarithmic dependence. Every further doubling adds an additional 4 Wm-2 to the radiative forcing.

Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
1.3 Human-induced Climate Variations
1.3.1 Human Influence on the Climate System
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/044.htm

  • 4 votes
#4.10 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:42 AM EDT
Cash

The IPCC report in 2001 acknowledged they did not understand 9 of the 12 things they listed as factors in climate change. In 2007 they have acknowledged they only don't understand 6 out of 9 factors they listed for climate change so, just this once, a political body got more efficient.

  • 4 votes
#4.11 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:46 AM EDT
space guy

I looked at this and it is interesting but I don't know if I buy it. One thing that is interesting is that the IPCC does admit (Space Goat take note) that the 15 micron band is saturated. I want to do some more research on this wing thing. I do know that it is related to what is called the p and q branch of the 15 micron absorption band.

What I don't buy is that the two wings will have this much effect on climate. At most this is a minor increase in absorption when water vapor has a far higher rate of absorptivity across more energetic bands.

So far this has not been the argument on the realclimate.org site which is pretty much BS but I have seen the wing argument before in the peer reviewed papers and it does merit more study.

  • 5 votes
#4.12 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:41 PM EDT
Deep_Thought

Actually, if you take a look at the graph you posted with your article, it pretty much says the same thing. Take a look at the bottom graph, where it says CO2 at around 15mm.

Its just been drawn poorly on a small scale and the effect of the band's wings are not apparent.

  • 3 votes
#4.13 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:18 AM EDT
Reply
space guy

I know far more about CO2 than I did a year ago. I have always had an interest in solar physics and it has just always seemed to me that the sun influences climate and I have always been interested in what actually causes the greenhouse effect. I did not even realize that in my own library (I purchased a technical library several years ago at a military auction but have not read all the books!) that I had some of the information on this subject and that an archive at the University of Alabama Huntsville has a lot more.

In studying the CO2 issue I wanted to go all the way back to first principles of physics because I just don't trust a lot of the information that is out there today. I was at UAH in the early 90's when Dr. John Christy and Dr. McNiter (I forget the exact spelling of his name) examined some old satellite data regarding the temperature of the stratosphere which forced a major revision to the IPCC global warming projections back then. It was a food fight to behold as this is when Bush 1 was in office and I had a lot of interesting conversations with Dr. Christy back then (his office was only about 50 feet from my lab).

I now have an incredible amount of information but I want to be able to present it in a readable manner that would be understood by any reasonably intelligent person. I would like to get feedback on what anyone may or may not understand about the article.

  • 7 votes
Reply#5 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:46 PM EDT
Cash

Nice work! There is a lot of obfuscation on this subject, mostly caused by journalists who cited "media talking points" as actual data and forgot to actually go and read the actual data on what CO2 is and is not.

Without knowledge of physics, people making discussions about CO2 are missing a lot.

  • 5 votes
Reply#6 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:53 PM EDT
space guy

Cash

You are right. It is unfortunate that too few people understand physics today. Also, the detailed physics of absorption, emission, and radiation quickly leads into higher math and quantum mechanics, which makes it even harder for the average person. Many on here argue with me without understanding what wavelength specific absorption means. I do this in a public forum hopefully to encourage understanding. I am trying and will keep trying to explain this in a way that does not require a physics degree to understand.

  • 7 votes
#6.1 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:27 PM EDT
Reply
Spacegoat

I have to admit that you are pushing me to learn a lot about climate change, but once again your logic is flawed and oversimplified. You're using a scientific hypothesis that was disproved over 50 years ago. Sorry for the RealClimate link, but this really explains the absorption issue better than any other site I've been able to find.

Once again, you are at odds with the reality of science.

  • 8 votes
#7 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:24 PM EDT
space guy

Spacegoat

That graph is from that Air Force database. I have put in repeated requests to get access to the HTRAN database with no response. Therefore I have gone behind HITRAN back to the original data sources.

  • 6 votes
#7.1 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:46 PM EDT
Spacegoat

From what I have read the Air Force records were used to illustrate the problem with the Koch tube experiment. It took a few more years to get the computing power to run the calculations, but Plass showed it was a mistake to treat the atmosphere as one large column in 1956. Atmospheric composition, pressure and temperature effect the absorption bands of gases.

  • 5 votes
#7.2 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 3:35 PM EDT
space guy

goat

The USAF was not doing laboratory experiments when they took this data. This was the result of flying the B-29 (remember the program on the discovery channel about the one that crashed at Lake Mead?) and using infrared spectrometers to measure the atmosphere, extremely precisely. The same thing was done with sounding rockets like the V2 flown from Vandenberg, White Sands, and Florida.

This is empirical data, not modeling.

  • 6 votes
#7.3 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 3:50 PM EDT
Spacegoat

I know that it's not modeling. Plass used the data in his calculations to see how the high and low altitude gases affect each other.

  • 2 votes
#7.4 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:46 PM EDT
space guy

I have even more data from other experiments that confirm what is in the graph above, all done by different people at different times, all who show that CO2 is extinguished at its principal absorption wavelengths. I don't care about Plass, I care about the original data and what it shows.

  • 6 votes
#7.5 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:28 PM EDT
Spacegoat

Well then you seem to disagree with what data actually shows.

Most experts stuck by the old objection to the greenhouse theory of climate change — in the parts of the spectrum where infrared absorption took place, the CO2 plus the water vapor that were already in the atmosphere sufficed to block all the radiation that could be blocked. In this "saturated" condition, raising the level of the gas could not change anything. But this argument was falling into doubt. The discovery of quantum mechanics in the 1920s had opened the way to an accurate theory for the details of how absorption took place, developed by Walter Elsasser during the Second World War. Precise laboratory measurements studies during the war and after confirmed a new outlook. In the frigid and rarified upper atmosphere where the crucial infrared absorption takes place, the nature of the absorption is different from what scientists had assumed from the old sea-level measurements.

Take a single molecule of CO2 or H2O. It will absorb light only in a set of specific wavelengths, which show up as thin dark lines in a spectrum. In a gas at sea-level temperature and pressure, the countless molecules colliding with one another at different velocities each absorb at slightly different wavelengths, so the lines are broadened considerably. With the primitive infrared instruments available earlier in the 20th century, scientists saw the absorption smeared out into wide bands. And they had no theory to suggest anything else.

A modern spectrograph shows a set of peaks and valleys superimposed on each band, even at sea-level pressure. In cold air at low pressure , each band resolves into a cluster of sharply defined lines, like a picket fence. There are gaps between the H2O lines where radiation can get through unless blocked by CO2 lines. That showed up clearly in data compiled for the US Air Force, drawing the attention of researchers to the details of the absorption, especially at high altitudes. Moreover, researchers working for the Air Force had become acutely aware of how very dry the air gets at upper altitudes—indeed the stratosphere has scarcely any water vapor at all. By contrast, CO2 is fairly well mixed all through the atmosphere, so as you look higher it becomes relatively more significant.(9a)

  • 3 votes
#7.6 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:38 PM EDT
space guy

If you actually study the graph you will see what they are talking about in the article that you reference. I am not talking about the early 20th century but data taken in the 40's and 50's when spectrographs with 0.001 micron resolution had already come out. If you look at the data in the graph you will see the difference in H20 absorption with altitude as well as with some of the more energetic CO2 lines.

Also

There are gaps between the H2O lines where radiation can get through unless blocked by CO2 lines.

There is only one part of the spectrum where CO2 and water extensively overlap and that is in an infrared band.

I am still trying to get output from the AVHIRR instrument that is being used today.

This is by no means the end of the trail of this discussion. I am trying to do this without too much math as I want this to be understandable to the average reader but it is very difficult to do so.

  • 5 votes
#7.7 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:57 PM EDT
space guy

Addendum

You are not showing any data. You are showing a discussion by someone about data. That is a very different thing from showing the data.

  • 5 votes
#7.8 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:59 PM EDT
space guy

Addendum II

How about getting me the latest narroband spectra across the infrared band and then we can talk about data. You will find that it is quite difficult to get.

  • 5 votes
#7.9 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:07 PM EDT
space guy

Addendum III

Take a single molecule of CO2 or H2O. It will absorb light only in a set of specific wavelengths, which show up as thin dark lines in a spectrum. In a gas at sea-level temperature and pressure, the countless molecules colliding with one another at different velocities each absorb at slightly different wavelengths, so the lines are broadened considerably. With the primitive infrared instruments available earlier in the 20th century, scientists saw the absorption smeared out into wide bands. And they had no theory to suggest anything else.

In thinking about this statement above there is a bit of circular logic at work.

The broadening of the waveband is temperature dependent. In the atmosphere molecules are as is stated above. The broadening is also pressure dependent. However, There is no intrinsinc increase in temperature or pressue as the wavebands are at extinction and the pressure increase due to increased CO2 is less than 0.001 percent. Therefore the statistics of a random CO2 collision only increases by that amount. So where is the increased broadening coming from?

Broadening can only occur if the temperature increases. The temperature increase can only happen if there is broadening (more absorption) therefore we have a circular condition. What we have is a violation of logic. The miniscule increase in CO2 relative to the total atmospheric pressure is not enough to create any broadening. Therefore there can be no temperature increase as broadening is a precondition to additional absorption, except as a fraction of total atmospheric pressure. This is true no matter the altitude.

Sorry goat, it was an interesting exercise but think about it a little bit and I think that you will agree.

  • 5 votes
#7.10 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 10:09 PM EDT
Spacegoat

I am showing a historical record of how the data you are presenting was interpreted, and how every other physicist in the world came to the exact opposite conclusion that you seem to be arriving at. Before that Air Force data was collected, the consensus was that infrared was 100% absorbed at existing levels of CO2. After that data was collected, it was found that CO2 was not at saturation levels. Moreover, it shows that a single layer model inadequately accounts for absorption. Yet you say,

If CO2 at ground level was fully absorbed, then it does not matter how much more (up to a point of several percent of the total atmosphere which nobody claims) CO2 is injected into the atmosphere, there will be no further heating.

  • 2 votes
#7.11 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 10:30 PM EDT
space guy

Goat

How about showing some data. Not every other physicist agrees with what you are saying. Reid Bryson, the father of global warming when he finally looked at the data changed his mind about the whole subject. Neither Dr. John Christy, nor Dr. Roy Spencer, both atmospheric physicists at the Center for Global Hydrology agree either. Therefore your statement that every other physicist came to the opposite conclusion is unjustified.

What you have just done is appeal to authority, consensus.

How about looking at the data, the argument, and then coming to your own conclusion. So far you have been at least somewhat interested in the truth. Take it to the next step. Let the truth win.

Wavelength broadening can only happen as a result of a temperature increase, not as a result of any increase in concentration of CO2. It has taken me a while to figure all this out as well. I feel a sequel to this article coming on.

  • 5 votes
#7.12 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 10:56 PM EDT
Spacegoat

Space Guy,

No offense, but I feel like I am having a conversion with a wall. You ask me to show you data. I tell you that YOU are showing the data and provide evidence that you are misinterpreting the data. At this point you should provide evidence to counter mine.

Instead you accuse me of appealing to authority, while you appeal to a few very questionable sources. The fact that you don't seem to understand the difference between a climate feedback and a forcing agent, you advocate solar forcing whereas empirical data proves you wrong, and now you stand by a simplistic climate model that was disputed 50 years ago, hardly gives me confidence in your authority.

But please don't feel that I don't appreciate your efforts. My counterpoint to your point has lead me to a greater understanding of the intricacies of climate science. I have gleaned some valuable information from your references. I'm still a skeptic.

  • 3 votes
#7.13 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 7:05 AM EDT
space guy

Goat

Oh I am learning as well and I do appreciate your interest, diligence, and your not going off into an attack. I don't want you to think that I am accusing you of anything, just trying to keep a perspective. I do think that you are incorrect when you say that every other physicist in the world agrees with the interpretation that you presented. One of the links in my article was to one of those. You know that most of the ones that spout off about CO2 and its role in global warming has not done as much research as you or I in this area.

Questionable sources? When these sources are from the Russian and UK/US military research institutes I hardly call those questionable. A tremendous amount of money was spent in the area of atmospheric research from the 40's through the 60's and while their equipment was much bulkier than what exists today, it was really darned accurate. This goes back to my statement that why is it that some people think that anything done before 1980 was somehow primitive and unworthy of note? The early and middle part of the 20th century was perhaps the greatest era of the experimentalist as this data was unknown and they are the ones who had to do the research to establish what the heck was going on. There has been far too much reliance on computer modeling, especially when that modeling is based on equations that have not been experimentally verified. My background is in test engineering so I do have some competence in this area to know how much computer modeling has replaced experimental evidence.

I will tell you that it is extremely interesting to me that in order to get good data that I am having to go back this far and pull things from books and that there is very little recent data that is supplied in a readable concise format that addresses this issue. I would have thought that the research community would have loved to have everything out in the open. So in a sense both you and I are shooting at each other without the full knowledge of everything that is going on out there. I am looking at remedying this with some of my contacts.

I wrote this article and the previous one as much for my own learning as anything else. I am not convinced 100% of my own position and seek more information so that any decisions that I make are informed ones. One thing that I would ask of you and anyone else who reads this is to not be so cottonpicking sure of your own position because it is quite clear that there is not enough hard core evidence out there for a conclusive answer one way or another. You have made me actually look in detail at the realclimate.org argument for CO2 and its role and more and more I see that either they don't understand it themselves or they are just building an argument that they think will BS the public. I am absolutely right when I say that they are using a circular argument for the wavelength broadening. The only caveat is that broadening would occur, although very very little, as the ratio of absorption increases to extinction. Wavelength broadening is temperature dependent, which means that it is temperature dependent!

Anyway this is "the wall's" response.

:)

  • 5 votes
#7.14 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 1:30 PM EDT
Spacegoat

Questionable sources? I was referring to Spencer, Christy and Bryson. I'm not questioning the data you're citing. The data is valid, I'm sure.

I will tell you that it is extremely interesting to me that in order to get good data that I am having to go back this far and pull things from books and that there is very little recent data that is supplied in a readable concise format that addresses this issue.

In regards to IR spectroscopy, I think you are having a hard time tracking down any information about it because the data was analyzed 50 years ago. The absorption properties of CO2 are now well understood, and not being disputed by the scientific community.

  • 3 votes
#7.15 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 2:39 PM EDT
space guy

Sorry but just because you don't agree with them does not mean that they are questionable sources. I happen to know Dr. Christy and he has always done impeccable work. It was his examination of old weather satellite data on the temperature of the stratosphere that caused a major downward revision of the global warming hysteria of the early 90's. I don't know Dr. Spencer but I have seen nothing from him that indicates any sense of non rigorous science.

Goat what you don't understand is that I have a fair bit of this data from 50-70 years ago. That is at the root of some of my challenge to the current fads in CO2. there is much more data that I have that I have not published here yet. This is a very complex subject and I don't get paid to do any of this so I can only do what I can do when I can do it.

It is the recent work that I have had problems getting. Some of it is out there but you have to pay to get the papers and that kinda irks me as I am a taxpayer and I paid for this research and why in the hell should I have to pay some professional society again for this research.

  • 5 votes
#7.16 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:13 PM EDT
Reply
npat

Space guy,

I don't think the folks at realclimate would want to bother with your stuff.

As an aside, this is as good a time as any to point people to a new resource we are putting together: RC Wiki, which is an index to the various debunkings of the contrarian articles, TV programs, and internet pseudo-science that is out there. The idea is to have a one-stop shop so that anyone who comes across a piece and wants to know what the real story just has to start there. For instance, the page on TGGWS has a listing of many of the substantive criticisms from the time of the first showing.

Editing the wiki is by invitation only, but let us know if you want to help out, or if you have any suggestions or comments.

  • 2 votes
#8 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:28 PM EDT
npat


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/07/friday-roundup/

    #8.1 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:29 PM EDT
    space guy

    Ya know I could care less. I tried posting over there but after they started censoring my posts I figured out that they were not interested in any kind of real exchange of knowledge.

    • 5 votes
    #8.2 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:30 PM EDT
    Cash

    This is true. Realclimate is only regarded as a science site by people who want to believe. I prefer my science to be neutral. If I want to be lectured about changing my ways by fundamentalists I will go to Mass.

    • 3 votes
    #8.3 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 6:51 PM EDT
    npat

    The scientists who write the articles at realclimate are outstanding but those who contribute comments to the articles at realclimate may not be.

    • 1 vote
    #8.4 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:15 PM EDT
    space guy

    npat

    When I posted there I found my comments filtered in such a way that the meaning was removed and there was no ability to even comment on that fact as the comments regarding the filtering were also not allowed.

    Sorry to burst your bubble but that site is not as pure as you would like to think it is.

    • 5 votes
    #8.5 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:39 PM EDT
    Cash

    They are no different than a website set up by people funded by Exxon. It is an ideology site, not a science site. Note that there is not a single writer on there who deviates by even one degree from their groupthink.

    Their definition of 'consensus' is 'we only allow people who agree with us to write' which is not what science is about.

    • 5 votes
    #8.6 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 10:27 PM EDT
    space guy

    Cash

    Yep. I tell you it has been interesting and instructive to me to do this article. Spacegoat really makes me work to figure out my own logic and argument. This is why I like newsvine and other other forms going all the way back to the early days of usnet. Being challenged in our assumptions is a good thing and I have learned a great deal from the whole experience. I opened several books on infrared spectroscopy that I had never really looked at before that I had purchased in a military contractor library of over a thousand books that have taught me much about the subject.

    So many people today think that anything before 1990 was primitive. However, just about all of the experimental work in spectroscopy in the 1940's to 60's was done with extremely precise instruments. I found one book that was written in China in 1939 that has all of the modes of CO2 absorption to 3 significant digits. I think that there has been a great loss of knowledge across the generations and too many today think that modeling and simulation can accurately describe reality.

    Now I can look at doing a paper on the subject.

    • 5 votes
    #8.7 - Fri Jul 13, 2007 11:07 PM EDT
    Tom Bombadil

    Wiki is regarded as a reliable, unbiased, and unimpeachable source by many Newsviners. Then again, so is the NY Times, CBS News, Barney the Dinosaur, Loose Change, Move On, Arianna Huffington, Mr. Bean, Michael Moore, Baghdad Bob, and Charlie Sheen.

    • 5 votes
    #8.8 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:09 AM EDT
    Spacegoat

    Excuse me Tom, but what does that leave us with as a reliable, unbiased and unimpeachable source in your opinion?

    • 1 vote
    #8.9 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 7:10 AM EDT
    Behind My Screen

    Tom is like my coworkers "nothing is trustworthy so no one can refute my garbage"

    • 2 votes
    #8.10 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:15 AM EDT
    Cash

    Huffington? I am more of a Laurie David fan. Any housewife smart enough to marry the guy who co-created Seinfeld is smart enough to figure out global warming, in my book.

    • 4 votes
    #8.11 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:48 AM EDT
    SuperUnspecial

    I don't know why anyone here is regarding this article very highly or criticizing realclimate.org for their practices (censoring you, some guy, for posting "information" that experts in the field of climatology and geophysics think are wrong).

    Let's get some perspective on things: The place for a scientific debate over experiments, results and the concepts surrounding them is a Peer Reviewed Journal, not a Newsvine.com article.

    The place to inform people about science and it's findings is a website like newsvine.com or realclimate.org.

    Unfortunately Newsvine.com can also be the place to misinform people.

    I will believe this article 100% once you republish it in a scientific journal. Post a link then.

    • 1 vote
    #8.12 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 5:15 PM EDT
    space guy

    Hmmmm

    The public is involved as it is their lives at stake. This is not just some arcane academic dispute that we are talking about here but literally a debate on the future of civilization. Many of these articles and seeds reference peer reviewed papers but the ability to put the debate into a form that the non specialist can follow is incredibly important.

    In this article, as well as the previous and future ones, I am taking my fellow newsviners down the path of learning that I am taking. I am a physicist with an engineering physics degree but climatology was not my field of study. I start my effort from fundamental physics and then follow the trail where it leads. That is what you do in science, start from first principles and go from there. I have the training in physics and math that many do not who read here, and so I am at an advantage, but that advantage is nothing if we cannot present the argument in ways that everyone, or at least most everyone, can understand. That is why Albert Einstein wrote his popular books on the most esoteric theory of all, Relativity.

    Even those who vehemently disagree with the a priori position that I have taken, that solar influences predominate over anthropogenically generated CO2, (Benno Hansen, Deep Thought, and Space Goat for example) agree that this discussion has been beneficial to all of us and forces us to study, to read, to seek to increase our level of understanding of this incredibly important issue.

    I am not asking you to "believe" in this article. Dispute it all you like, however when you do so, you will find that all of us who are on this journey will present data, information, and interpretation that may be at odds with what you "believe".

    Most of us are searchers for knowledge and wisdom and though we may vehemently disagree, I respect folks who think otherwise and who have shown a willingness to learn and grow as I do in this area of study.

    This is at the core of my criticism of realclimate.org. The more I read their articles, as my understanding grows, the more I see the flaws in their positions. Also, when one posts there and finds that their posts are filtered in such a way as to remove context and then be subjected to ad hominum attacks, I then come to the conclusion that truth is not the foremost thing on their minds. That is especially when I see known nut cases, who troll other boards to bomb throw are welcomed as fellow travelers just because they agree with the owners of that site.

    As far as peer review goes, I have a pretty good track record, although it is in areas of study in spacecraft engineering and physics that are not related to climateology, including many honors.

    • 2 votes
    #8.13 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 6:10 PM EDT
    SuperUnspecial

    Ok, so I don't get it then, are you just trying to inspire debate by bringing up common, debunked internet myths to inspire debate so as to raise public awareness? I seriously don't get. Either you're not debating and posting in earnest for some reason (you did make admission to your a priori position) or your willfully ignoring things, like the second part of the article from realclimate.org that you posted, specifically this which, coincidentally is linked to in the realclimate.org article section that you quoted above in the words "modern measurements" that you claimed "is manifestly incorrect" and followed it up with a much shorter, much less modern, much simpler and much more wrong explanation.

    Anyhow since I'm really unsure of whether or not you mean what you say, specifically whether this is a well-meaning troll, I really don't see why I should discuss this. I'm not trying to make an ad hominem here, just that I have a 0 tolerance policy for trolling of any sort and now I'm suspicious.

    • 1 vote
    #8.14 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 7:22 PM EDT
    space guy

    Then you can just move along, no one is forcing you to read this thread.

    I have not ignored anything and my a priori position is based upon a very well founded understanding of solar physics. When I see the amount of global warming potential almost exactly match the amount of solar heating over the past 100 years it was enough for me. Also, when I see Albert Gore use Global Warming as a cause celeb to re-engineer society I get suspicious. Also, I used to work down the hall from Dr. John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and saw how one dataset from satellites completely force a downward revision in the early 90's global warming debate and saw how he was pilloried just for presenting that data, I get suspicious of the "consensus". Also, on top of this I have actually worked on the design of instruments to measure the slopes of the extinction curves of various visible light absorption features in the atmosphere and so I do understand the physics of absorption, and even the quality of the instrumentation that is currently measuring these features in the atmosphere. I have also worked on the design of remote sensing instruments for the Moon, Mars, and asteroids and so understand multispectral imaging across a very large swath of the electromagnetic spectrum.

    As a scientist it is incumbent upon me that before I shoot off my mouth on a subject I need to understand it. That is why I start with fundamental physics and go from there. I also have a substantial technical and scientific library of my own and access to some of the best data out there so I am learning the specifics of CO2 and how it operates.

    So far I have seen no myths. I have seen a lot of BS on realclimate.org that indicates a lack of understanding of the quantum mechanical basis of radiation absorption and emission. I also see in a great many posters a lack of understanding of basic physics much less quantum mechanics.

    I really don't give a rats patootie whether or not you think I am a troll or not. Even those who most vehemently disagree with me on here have admitted that they have learned something. That is the essence of what these community sites are about. I am one to admit that I don't know absolutely everything about the subject but the more that I learn, the less that I believe in the thesis of anthropogenic global warming from CO2. I still have questions, and there may be even some experiments that I propose to the appropriate agencies related to the subject. What I do here is far from all of my work and I know enough to actually do the make the proposals and do the science in this field.

    So up yours on your zero tolerance.

    • 1 vote
    #8.15 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 8:01 PM EDT
    SuperUnspecial

    Maybe I came off a little too strong, I'm sorry. You seem to use the term a priori in a quirky way which is partly why I was suspicious of trolling. So, as a scientist then, what's your take on part 2 of the article you were disagreeing with? The part where a different explanation for the CO² absorption that disputes your claim that more CO² would not mean more absorption.
    www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/06/a-saturated-gassy-argument-part-ii

      #8.16 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:02 PM EDT
      Cash

      Citing realclimate as a valid source when they are a closed group of writers specifically invited for their stance on a CO2 cause for global warming is the appealling to authority fallacy I see.

      Data is data. If it were conclusive and not 'correlation is causation' there would be no debate. I never get anyone debating me about gravity, for example, because I can drop a brick on their toe but activisits of the "American cars cause global warming but Chinese cars do not" Kyoto political stripe tend to fall back on "consensus" and majorities must be right.

      There have been many peer reviewed articles that dispute the IPCC, though I am betting you know nothing about the peer review process or you would know how flawed it is - instead you just believed Al Gore when he said he took a 'random sample' of 928 of all articles and couldn't find a single one disputing a CO2 cause for the warmth that has occurred - a probability statisticians later said is less likely than a meteorite falling on my head.

      • 2 votes
      #8.17 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:33 PM EDT
      space guy

      Super

      Apology accepted.

      There are two problems right away with the link that you provided.

      I want you to look very closely at the two graphs shown at the top of the article where it talks about wavelength broadening due to an increased concentration of CO2. Look very closely and you will see that the width of the saturated band (note to Space Goat and Benno, and Deep Thought, even the realclimate site agrees that the 15 micron band is saturated).

      The fully saturated band is about 3.5 microns in width in the top graph.

      When you look at the graph below the width of the saturated area is now about a quarter of a micron narrower for absolutely no reason with the overall width of the new saturated zone being about 1 micron in width. So there is a 25% error just in the exposition of that graph, which would correspond to 25% of the estimated warming.

      Second if you look at my graph at the top of the article you will see that water vapor overlaps the entire absorption spectra in that same 15 micron band at sea level. Since water vapor varies by orders of magnitude on a daily basis then it is reasonable to assume that the concentration broadening completely overwhelms the CO2 in that band.

      Also, look at my graph above. The energy of a 15 micron quanta of radiation is intrinsically more than an order of magnitude less energetic than a a quanta of radiation at 1.4 and 1.8 microns where water vapor fully extinguishes the energy there.

      This is basic physics. The standard rebuttal is that the persistence of water vapor in the atmosphere is only ten days. So what? That would be relevant if after ten days there was no water vapor in the atmosphere, but this is not the case.

      This is the basis of the statement, based solidly in physics, that CO2 constitues only a very small fraction of the global warming potential in greenhouse gasses and that increasing the concentrations has little impact on climate.

      On the other hand, why don't you check out my latest seed on the increasing possibility that we may be moving into a solar minimum cycle that may dramatically cool climate.

      • 2 votes
      #8.18 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:37 AM EDT
      Benno Hansen

      Cash: always ready with a new straw man. This time it's "Climate Change science says Chinese cars don't cause Global Warming". As if it hadn't got ridiculous a long time ago, this pseudo-debate.

        #8.19 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:26 AM EDT
        SuperUnspecial

        appealing to authority fallacy"

        While, appealing to authority is a fallacy of a logical argument everyone at the table is full of themselves if they actually believe that their comments on newsvine concerning highly technical science constitute a logical scientific argument. We're all appealing to authority in some form or another and attempt to use our best judgement to determine what's right, logic may be included. This the crux of the problem. The author linked to an article and "refuted" a claim, however, what the author didn't actually do was address the argument presented in that link. I didn't "cite" anything, I just asked for the author to comment on the article that he ignored. After all Data is data.

        If it were conclusive and not 'correlation is causation' there would be no debate.I never get anyone debating me about gravity, for example, because I can drop a brick on their toe

        No, there would be a "debate" regardless. Just like there's an Intelligent Design "debate," just like there are still "debates" over whether or not there are WMDs in Iraq. Just like there are plenty of "debates" and "facts" otherwise known as talking points and media campaigns, sadly, that's how things seem to work now. But to the point, the reason people believe in gravity has nothing to do with bricks falling on feet, people got pelted with projectiles long before gravity was even imagined. People are educated about gravity by an authority of some sort and then they believe because it seems to make sense, some people are lucky enough to go be able to read through Newton's Principia and and make their decision based on the arguments presented, but they are the smallest minority.

        "American cars cause global warming but Chinese cars do not"

        Who thinks that? And where are the links to the "many peer reviewed articles that dispute the IPCC."

        though I am betting you know nothing about the peer review process or you would know how flawed it is

        Ok, fine, I know nothing about the peer reviewed process and therefore do not know how flawed it is. I'm assuming you do, so, how is it flawed? You implied you had knowledge I didn't so, what is it?

        instead you just believed Al Gore when he said he took a 'random sample' of 928 of all articles and couldn't find a single one disputing a CO2 cause for the warmth that has occurred - a probability statisticians later said is less likely than a meteorite falling on my head.

        So why is it about character assassination? I don't get it, you obviously know that Gore neither did nor claimed to do that survey, what he did was cite a survey. So why is it that the main talking points of the right is that global warming is all about Al Gore? Why is it that "there have been many papers"? Why is it that whenever specifics are mentioned they're shown to be false?

        But, what can I say I'm obviously some pinko from the "Kyoto political stripe" (I wish I knew what that meant) who knows nothing about the peer review process and who tends to fall back on "consensus" and "majorities must be right." I mean, I must just be some stupid hippie because "many peer reviewed articles" failed to persuaded me, whereas, the IPCC has. And obviously, I read some article claiming to "refute" a claim made by a reputable publication that doesn't actually address the argument made by that publication and I think "hmm, who do I trust?" and since I don't come up with "I trust some guy who seems to have made it his newsvine purpose to "debunk" global warming" I must just be some fanatical activist type who was hit on the head by a meteorite and wants to re-engineer the world so that Americans eat dog food, (vegan dog food) walk shoeless to their destinations, live in tee-pees and make free, free love to every man woman, beast and European. Man, how did you pin me down? Am I that transparent? Looks like need to go refill my dime bag.

        • 2 votes
        #8.20 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:35 AM EDT
        SuperUnspecial

        Space guy

        I'm not sure I get your first point which seems to be that the graphing tool might not work right.

        Your second one, really I have no conclusive proof whether this would be addressed in their methodology, though, I would suspect that it would have been.

        Sure, the 15 micron range has greater radiation, but that doesn't mean that the other wave lengths wouldn't add up to a substantial change in global temperature.

        This is the basis of the statement, based solidly in physics, that CO2 constitutes only a very small fraction of the global warming potential in greenhouse gasses

        Agree

        and that increasing the concentrations has little impact on climate.

        disagree

        Certainly quadrupling the amount of methane in the atmosphere would cause problems, but that doesn't mean CO2 wouldn't have a big impact.

        • 1 vote
        #8.21 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:10 AM EDT
        space guy

        its also a bit of an overhype that they use the 4x concentration in that explanation. A 2X explanation simply would not look as good. I also don't think that it is an artifact of their graphing tool. If so its a pretty weak tool to not get that right twice in a row.

        I am not, at this time, going to say that quadrupling would not have an effect, however, that is not what is generally talked about for the near term. Also, it is uncertain whether or not there is enough oil to get us to those concentration levels.

        So in the end I just don't find their arguments convincing. However, I am spending a great deal of time on the physics of CO2 in order to figure it out one way or another. Obviously if it is this big of a controversy that there is room for doubt one way or another.

        One thing that bothers me though is that the people who "believe" in the role of anthropogenic global warming are on the dem side of the political equation and those who don't are either in the middle or on the right. It should not be that way, data is data, and let the truth fall where it may. I do know that Mr. Gore has made this his crusade for almost 20 years and that is bothersome as I have actually read his books and his solution set is not a world in which I would like to live. There are solutions that are out there that can lead to a prosperous world for us all. That is why my efforts lie in the space development arena, that is the ultimate solution to our resource problem as well as energy. I absolutely agree that we have to get off of oil, and that this is a far more pressing problem than AGW and that when we solve the energy problem, AGW will take care of itself, if indeed it is a problem.

        • 2 votes
        #8.22 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:00 AM EDT
        SuperUnspecial

        its also a bit of an overhype that they use the 4x concentration in that explanation. A 2X explanation simply would not look as good.

        But the point was to show that CO2 hasn't maxed out yet, we're very close to the point of of the 2X so, if they showed that, it wouldn't address their point.

        Here's the thing that really bothers me:

        One thing that bothers me though is that the people who "believe" in the role of anthropogenic global warming are on the dem side of the political equation and those who don't are either in the middle or on the right.

        This is not my experience whatsoever! My experience is that most everyone accepts global warming, as, if not true, then very very very probably true. My experience is also that it is a small fraction of the right who does not accept AGW, and that it is mostly tabloid level talking heads who continually accuse others of making it a partisan issue. Europeans and Asians do not disbelieve the AGW theory nearly the way Americans do, and they also have a less tabloid/scream loud news system.

        It should not be that way, data is data, and let the truth fall where it may.

        Agreed! but in order to for this not to be that way people need to stop listening to and patronizing news organizations whose sole goal is to convince you what "moderates think" and attack characters as if they were the issue.

        I do know that Mr. Gore has made this his crusade for almost 20 years and that is bothersome as I have actually read his books and his solution set is not a world in which I would like to live.

        Certainly when he wrote Earth in the Balance, in 92 or 93 the science was far less developed, maybe it was a bit more faith then he would like to admit at that point, but I'm really not sure.

        There are solutions that are out there that can lead to a prosperous world for us all. That is why my efforts lie in the space development arena, that is the ultimate solution to our resource problem as well as energy. I absolutely agree that we have to get off of oil, and that this is a far more pressing problem than AGW and that when we solve the energy problem, AGW will take care of itself, if indeed it is a problem.

        So, I'm with you except for the space part, I think if the US, instead of going to war in Iraq spend that money to fund research, developement and production into solar, wind, battery tech and mass transits and a few others then every American would benefit, we'd make ourselves less of a target by fed up fundamentalist radicals, local and regional economies would get a boost both from new products to make and sell and because energy dollars wouldn't travel as far between producer and consumer and energy prices would go down and become stable in the mid to long term, which would mean the cost of everything else would go down because fuel would be cheaper since it's based on the futures market which these changes would devalue. So even without Global warming these changes ought to be made.

        People like to think that the situation we're in now in terms of having an oil/auto economy and people having large suburban houses, 45 minute commutes and every consumer good being mostly packaging just happened because of the free market and to intervene would be wrong... Well, that's really not what happened, the auto, home, packaging, global shipping is a product of policy, it was intentional and it had the intended results. For example, most people think that the Interstate Highways were built by Eisenhower for military purposes. That is not correct, the real story is that Auto companies, wanting a larger market appealed to Eisenhower who in tern sold the Interstate Highway system to Congress for our "national defense." The point I'm getting at, is, that the world we live in isn't just here randomly, it is the result of decisions made by informed people to achieve the results they desire. And those who have made policy have largely been successful in their plans.

        • 2 votes
        #8.23 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:45 PM EDT
        space guy

        So, I'm with you except for the space part, I think if the US, instead of going to war in Iraq spend that money to fund research, developement and production into solar, wind, battery tech and mass transits and a few others then every American would benefit, we'd make ourselves less of a target by fed up fundamentalist radicals, local and regional economies would get a boost both from new products to make and sell and because energy dollars wouldn't travel as far between producer and consumer and energy prices would go down and become stable in the mid to long term, which would mean the cost of everything else would go down because fuel would be cheaper since it's based on the futures market which these changes would devalue. So even without Global warming these changes ought to be made.

        I own a solar business and I work in the development of advanced solar technologies. Guess what, most of that research is done to improve the power factors of space systems. Even if solar cost half of what it costs today, it would not survive without subsidies. I love solar and believe in it but it is not the be all and end all solution. Neither is wind or conservation. We need a robust power system and fusion is the way to go. We are moving in that direction but we had a 12 year hiatus courtesy of Mr. Gore.

        People like to think that the situation we're in now in terms of having an oil/auto economy and people having large suburban houses, 45 minute commutes and every consumer good being mostly packaging just happened because of the free market and to intervene would be wrong... Well, that's really not what happened, the auto, home, packaging, global shipping is a product of policy, it was intentional and it had the intended results. For example, most people think that the Interstate Highways were built by Eisenhower for military purposes. That is not correct, the real story is that Auto companies, wanting a larger market appealed to Eisenhower who in tern sold the Interstate Highway system to Congress for our "national defense." The point I'm getting at, is, that the world we live in isn't just here randomly, it is the result of decisions made by informed people to achieve the results they desire. And those who have made policy have largely been successful in their plans.

        People have surburban houses because they want them. I don't buy for a second that these were policy intentional actions except in that they facilitated what was already desired. I don't buy your position on the Interstates as Eisenhower saw the value for moving military cargo as well as civilian traffic along the German Autobahns and the U.S. system is a copy of that. I am one who grew up during the period right at the beginning of the Interstate system and in terms of fuel efficiency the interstates are light years ahead of the old national highway system. No one who has ever traveled extensively by roads in the U.S. could even conceive of how much more difficult it would be to not have the Interstates. Sorry that simply does not pass the smell test, especially when the Interstates were detrimental to many local economies that were bypassed. I drive across country at least once a year, and have for the past 30 years.

        The role of a national government is to help to facilitate our freedom and promote commerce. The only energy crisis that we have is the crisis of spirit that thinks that the future has to be darker than today. There is zero need for this and as one who works in the arena, we have the ability to create a planetary civilization that makes ours look as primitive as Rome. Space and fusion are the cornerstones of that future.

        • 1 vote
        #8.24 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:13 PM EDT
        caltha-palustris

        People have suburban houses because they want them. I don't buy for a second that these were policy intentional actions except in that they facilitated what was already desired.

        Sorry to digress, but if I recall correctly, suburban housing was a direct product of the GI Bill for WW2 vets and was the stimulus for powerful economic and social change in Post-WW2 era. If it was not cheaper to move outside of urban areas then what other the reason precipitated a desire to move out to the country. Migrations are still taking place to less expensive areas primarily for the desire to live where the cost of living is less.

        The challenge will be in developing real estate where power can be generated on site, without the Grid. Look at the headline in yesterday's news. Federal wildlife refuges will now be used to expand power transmission lines.

        It's one thing to build facilities that generate enough power, but how will that energy reach consumers. I think a platform of different types of renewable energy is one answer. On-site co-generation plants is another, fuel cells is another. Establishing CAFE standards seen in Asia is another; Japan developed cars that are fuel efficient based on economy (and I'll add because it was sensible policy towards managing a finite resource). There is no easy solution.

          #8.25 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 1:46 PM EDT
          SuperUnspecial

          Well, if you don't believe that the auto industry is the reason why we have interstates, you should read this

          Also, it's common knowledge that GM bought electric streetcar companies so that they could put them out of business and replace them with diesel buses that people wouldn't ride. That's not the free market, that's one group of powerful people exerting influence over needs and wants of the rest.

            #8.26 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:33 PM EDT
            space guy

            You use that article as your proof? Sorry, don't buy it for a second. The reason that mass transit actually works in Europe is that the population density is far higher there. It is less than 800 miles from London to Berlin and from Berlin to Rome. People also have a far higher likelyhood of living in cities and have been used to doing so for centuries. I spend a fair amount of time in Europe and enjoy the trains. However, it is a pain when I get off and want to go somewhere more than a few miles from the tracks.

            I travel extensively in the USA and the interstates are the most wonderful invention of our civilization. i WANT to be able to hop on the interestate and drive hundreds of miles rapidly and so do hundreds of millions of my fellow citizens. Sorry but more and more I keep seeing the veering off into this attempt to re-engineer society. What you want is akin to the Police song lyrics The world is running down, lets make the best of what is still around

            Sorry but I see a world where within 50 years we can have an American style standard of living in India, China, and even Africa. The key is energy. We have relied on oil because it is cheap and easy to store for mobile power systems (automobiles). It is time to get beyond oil, move to the hydrogen economy. We have the technology to do so and that is something worth working for.

            • 1 vote
            #8.27 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:49 PM EDT
            space guy

            Calthra

            That is why I like solar for residential and business uses, where it makes sense. Couple that with regenerative fuel cells and you have an ideal solution for a distributed generation system. At some point for centralized distribution we are going to have to move to high temperature superconductors which will minimize the land need for power lines.

            • 1 vote
            #8.28 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:51 PM EDT
            SuperUnspecial

            Space guy

            maybe not the best source, but honestly, the internet is just not a place where quality secondary sources abound. The Snell work, much like all of the peer reviewed papers about global warming and scholarly and scientific work in general are simply not available for public viewing on the internet. You usually need to pay $200 or so for a subscription. I honestly think this is the heart of why science in general is not well covered by the media.

            The process goes like this

            • scientists (or scholars) do research that may or may not have questionable motives
            • they publish research
              • sometimes they do lit reviews and this is what makes it to the next step
            • media reports on abstract, maybe getting it partly right maybe reporting with ideological bias
            • people use media reports as evidence for or against their preconceptions which may have a different degree of rationality
            • sometimes some people change their minds

            But either way the conversation is so removed because any dispute over details is almost always pointless because the science or research is already many times removed and interpreted.

            • 1 vote
            #8.29 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:06 PM EDT
            space guy

            Super

            Peer reviewed papers on global warming is not the link that you provided. What you were providing there was a justification for the position that the interstate highway system was either driven by the power of the auto companies or some other industrial policy which is a crock.

            I do agree with you that it is a problem to efficiently obtain quality papers on the subject of CO2 absorption is difficult and that it should not be so.

            So please do not confuse my pointed rebuttal to an article on the interstate highway system with any general criticism of papers related to global warming.

            • 1 vote
            #8.30 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:53 PM EDT
            SuperUnspecial

            There was no confusion, the work done by Snell is just not available online, I would have prefered to link that instead of the article I did, but the same thing applies to secondary history sources as does geophysics papers. With the Snell instance you either get an article from a site like counterpunch or one that calls the whole thing a myth, neither of which do much more than take quotes from the author with questionable context.

              #8.31 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 5:51 PM EDT
              space guy

              Super

              Ah, I see. Oh well it is a problem. One thing you have to remember is that in 1940 the population of the USA was less than 200 million. The majority of the surburban growth has been to accomodate that population increase.

              I have absolutely nothing against surburbia and the ability of people to live in a way that is not on top of each other like rats.

              • 2 votes
              #8.32 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 6:16 PM EDT
              SuperUnspecial

              The downside of suburbia is that you are neither connected to people nor independent, you can neither walk to places for things you need or want, nor can you walk into the woods or a field. I have family from the suburbs, but, I grew up rural and in college and for a couple years after lived urban. As my town becomes closer to suburban, it's very strange to see people watering their lawns, and driving status symbols (don't get me wrong, people never really drove red neck cars but, people who had money usually went for an F350 Super Duty, a Suberu or a Volvo, maybe even a sports car, SUVs and the like are really not all that popular amongst most home-grown people, the new comers love their Hummers). Also, the area is becoming less neighborly as houses are added. When I was a kid, dropping by unannounced and maybe calling another friend from the first person's home phone while they weren't there was not uncommon or necessarily rude.

              But, the suburbia that is developing around me is caused by man made policies, not the free market. Most every town has a 2 acre, 100ft of frontage law to build, this means, scores of 2 acre lots everywhere instead of the old way, more raw nature and parks within walking distance (just outside of the village) and more people within walking distance the way it happens when towns develop how they used to, without zoning laws to create suburbia. Instead everyone has their own pool and trampoline and has far less of an idea what their neighbors think.

              It's one thing if you get to move to the suburbs, it's another if they're moved on top of you because zoning laws are stupid and shortsited.

              Just a thought

                #8.33 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:52 PM EDT
                space guy

                The downside of suburbia is that you are neither connected to people nor independent, you can neither walk to places for things you need or want, nor can you walk into the woods or a field.

                Where I grew up, which was pretty much surburbia in Alabama, I could still walk off into the woods within 100 yards of my house. I personally don't like large tracts of houses but I don't buy the not connected to people argument. Most kids meet their friends in schools and by the very nature of schools the other kids live within a few miles. Not a problem.

                I simply hate cities. The grime, the crime, the noise, the smell. I don't want to live on top of 5000 other people like I see so much of in Europe and in big cities here in the U.S. At least if I live in surburbia the woods is not that far away and the car culture guarantees that I have access to it. If I live in a city, it is tough to own a car, it is a pain in the rear to get out of town and go anywhere nice. I guess that it is personal preference WHICH IS THE POINT.

                There is no technological reason why 9 billion people cannot live at a very high standard of living. It is possible through the use of fusion for power, and resources from space to suppliment what we have here, and eventually to supplant terrestrial mining. Once it becomes cheaper to obtain minerals out there, we simply won't do it here anymore, which is good for the environment.

                  #8.34 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:36 PM EDT
                  Reply
                  npat

                  Space guy wrote (# 8.7):

                  I think that there has been a great loss of knowledge across the generations and too many today think that modeling and simulation can accurately describe reality.

                  I agree with that and I've said so for many years on the subject of hydrology and record keeping. That doesn't change my conclusion on what's happening to climate as a result of our dumping mega-tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. Earth's resources are not a free lunch for whoever gets to them first because their are limitations and costs to be paid later, like most other things I can think of.

                  • 4 votes
                  Reply#9 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:00 AM EDT
                  caltha-palustris

                  Thanks for the interesting article.

                  I'm trying to understand the process of CO2 absorbtion/interaction by/with the world's oceans and how CO2 affects seawater pH? Links to other websites would be great. Thanks in advance.

                  • 3 votes
                  Reply#10 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:55 PM EDT
                  npat

                  http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=109619&org=NSF&from=news

                  http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/

                  • 3 votes
                  #10.1 - Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:10 PM EDT
                  Reply
                  Colorado Bob

                  Down in Inez, Kentucky, right on the West Virginia border, a high school English teacher named Mick McCoy recently put up a large wooden sign beside his cucumber patch. On it, a light blue fog hovers above steep, verdant mountains. The message reads: GOD WAS WRONG. SUPPORT MOUNTAINTOP REMOVAL.

                  Appalachian Apocalypse

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#11 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:57 AM EDT
                  Colorado Bob

                  Just part of the CO2 Bill.

                    #11.1 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:58 AM EDT
                    space guy

                    Bob

                    Thanks for an input completely orthogonal to the discussion. Just for the record, I completely support the rapid development of nuclear fusion in order to transcend the current limitations and complications of hydrocarbon fuel resources.

                    • 4 votes
                    #11.2 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:08 AM EDT
                    Reply
                    Benno Hansen

                    Interesting article + comments. I particularly appreciate how a handful of "skeptics" with space guy on their watchlist rush in to have the last bit of credibility tossed >:-]

                    (...that is the smiley for an evil grin, right!?)

                    I'll have to second the praise of space guy that i provokes me to learn more. Thanks.

                    Regarding...

                    it is at the ground where all of the temperature rise is

                    Someone recently seeded some world maps with global temperature changes of at least two different altitudes which you might want to consult. Can't find it right now, though. If you can, please link.

                    Then there was a link to the 2001 IPCC scientific basis. Quickly "debunked" by Newsvine's own science authority (sic!), Cash. It is kind of a central document now that what you "skeptics" are trying to do is Al Gore invented Climate Change too, no!? Maybe it'd help if I linked to the 2007 version of IPCC's science docs? Probably not!

                    Looking forward to your next conspiracy theory, guys. But let me just throw in a quick quote:

                    In the case of anthropogenic global warming, there is a theory (first conceived over 100 years ago) based on well-established laws of physics. It is consistent with mountains of observation and data, both contemporary and historical. It is supported by sophisticated, refined global climate models that can successfully reproduce the climate's behavior over the last century.

                    From 'There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming'. Not much else needs to be said.

                      Reply#12 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 6:44 AM EDT
                      space guy

                      Benno

                      Do you actually have a technical response to the article?

                      • 3 votes
                      #12.1 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:12 PM EDT
                      space guy

                      Here is my response to that article:

                      In the case of anthropogenic global warming, there is a theory (first conceived over 100 years ago) based on well-established laws of physics. It is consistent with mountains of observation and data, both contemporary and historical. It is supported by sophisticated, refined global climate models that can successfully reproduce the climate's behavior over the last century.

                      When Svante Arrhenius first postulated CO2 rise from fossil fuels it was before Max Plank's and Albert Einstein's discovery of what we now know as quantum mechanics. It is impossible to understand the mechanism of CO2 absorption unless you understand that all radiative energy transfer is quantized.

                      Think of it like the bursting of a glass due to an opera singer. Until the opera singer hits just the right note the glass is completely unaffected by her voice. This is exactly (in concept) how infrared energy is transferred to a molecule. That is why sunlight cannot effect a CO2 molecule. This is at the heart of why water vapor is far more of a greenhouse gas than CO2 is because H2O absorbs at higher energies than CO2 and also water vapor absorbs in some of the same bands as CO2. If you look at the graph in the article above then you can see this in the peaks of H2O, which are to the left (higher energies) than the CO2 absorption features.

                      • 3 votes
                      #12.2 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:40 PM EDT
                      Benno Hansen

                      Do you actually have a technical response to the article?

                      I found some of the other comments and links quite informative, thanks.

                        #12.3 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:19 PM EDT
                        space guy

                        Ok, it is a learning experience for all of us, which is what the vine is for!

                        More to come!

                        • 3 votes
                        #12.4 - Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:35 PM EDT
                        Reply
                        Robert Blevins - AB of Seattle

                        All I know is this:

                        We keep breaking heat records every year in Seattle.
                        Snowpack drops.
                        Cherry blossoms keep blooming earlier.
                        Winters used to be cold. Now they are wet and warmer.
                        Rainier shows more rock each summer than the previous year, usually.
                        They closed the Ice Caves because they melted.
                        They have to keep changing the maps because so much of the Antarctic ice shelf keeps breaking off. (this from a guy who sent us a message from a research station there)
                        Geese head north earlier each year.
                        I could give more thoughts, but you get the idea. Sometimes these type of articles remind me of someone trying to explain how 'day' is actually a form of 'night'.

                        • 1 vote
                        Reply#13 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:24 AM EDT
                        jev2000

                        Super: My experience is that most everyone accepts global warming, as, if not true, then very very very probably true. My experience is also that it is a small fraction of the right who does not accept AGW, and that it is mostly tabloid level talking heads who continually accuse others of making it a partisan issue. Europeans and Asians do not disbelieve the AGW theory nearly the way Americans do, and they also have a less tabloid/scream loud news system."

                        At one time I thought this was true. What I have found is that, in my experience, if a discussion about global warming starts, many people go quiet or tacitly nod their heads. I have asked many of these people what they really think, they express doubts or outright scepticism. They don't speak out because they don't want to bear the condesension from those who "know" even though most of those people are working from gut feelings, like 'of course there's global warming, you can feel it.'

                        A recent poll in Britain shows that a majority of people don't care about global warming whether they believe or not. To say that the Europeans have less tabloid news is interesting, the British invented it.

                        Space Guy, thanks for an informative article. I'm statrting to notice that every sound and solid piece of science is being attacked by RealClimate and their ilk, then their rebuttals are held up as proof that the real science is faulty. I have seen the graph that you used above many times, it persists and its still the best example we have.

                          Reply#14 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:42 PM EDT
                          space guy

                          jpark

                          Here is a link to an abstract related to the possibility (that is growing) that we are going into a sustained (decades) reduction in solar activity. It is getting very interesting, the longer it takes for us to begin the new solar cycle.

                          • 1 vote
                          #14.1 - Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:53 PM EDT
                          Reply
                          Spacegoat

                          Hey Space Guy,

                          I found a link to download the HITRAN database.

                            Reply#15 - Wed Aug 8, 2007 6:48 PM EDT
                            space guy

                            SG

                            I just now got this in my conversation tracker.

                            January

                            • 1 vote
                            #15.1 - Mon Jan 7, 2008 2:10 PM EST
                            Reply
                            carbonsom

                            hi all,
                            can some one tel me is co2 highly responsible for climate change or not?will carbon markets survuve in future?

                              Reply#16 - Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:03 AM EDT
                              space guy

                              It is our feverent hope that they will not survive. Carbon markets do nothing to help the problem of alternative energy. However, politicians have figured out that this is another nice way to tax people so they will probably survive for a while at least.

                                #16.1 - Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:03 AM EDT
                                Reply
                                Drew A. Blanc

                                Space Guy,

                                Great article.

                                I've heard that spy satellites use the CO2 absorption bands to help detect enemy rocket launches. The satellites are tuned to the wavelengths absorbed by CO2. Because these wavelengths are fully extinguished, anything seen by the satellites must be above the atmosphere and therefore a possible launch.

                                If this information is correct, then it would support (perhaps prove) the issue about extinction by CO2.

                                Do you have any information to corroborate or refute this?

                                Thanks,

                                Chris

                                  Reply#17 - Wed Dec 30, 2009 2:02 AM EST
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